Mater Dei will win the MNC with three losses,

Started by DreadnaughtAlum, Oct 18, 2025, 09:26 AM

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DreadnaughtAlum

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The Monarchs will lose to SJB in the regular season, marking their third loss. That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage and the talent gap is not significant enough for SJB to overcome said advantage- and MD will beat DLS in the Open title game.

Along the way, Grayson will be upset in the Georgia playoffs; IMG will get dismantled by SFA, who's already lost to SJB; Bishop Gorman won't have a claim over MD having lost at home to them. Mostly, rankers will fall prey to recency bias, and will talk up the notion that "nobody is playing as well as MD this time of year". Additionally, the ascendant line of reasoning among rankers (dreadfully illogical as it is) is that you don't rank teams based on what happened in real games, but rather you imagine what you think would/should happen in a hypothetical rematch and rank according to your imagination. Any other team not mentioned above will lose out in the ranking to MD on the grounds that folks imagine MD would win a hypothetical match up vs. them.

The piss-poor reasoning mentioned above has always been used in deriving betting lines for games both scheduled and hypothetical (and it's not necessarily a bad idea for betting lines). This explains why Alabama, under Nick Saban, was frequently said to have been favored over any other team...without regard for their record. Now, imagine this approach being used to rank the teams in, say, 2010. Make no mistake, the 2010 national champions *absolutely* would've been Alabama. Sure, the Tide lost three (3) games, including to the Auburn team which finished unbeaten and actually won the NC. But, under this new ranking ideology, Auburn would've never made it to the title game in the first place: rankers' imaginations very likely would conclude Auburn wouldn't have won a hypothetical rematch with Alabama, and so therefore they should be ranked lower.

This abomination being passed off as sound reasoning is also reflective of society having gone mad in general and across the board. The "information age", where the internet and AI chatbots can offer any/all facts desired, has also led people to forget (or never learn) the importance of sound reasoning. People can't make proper sense of facts as they are shared.

End rant.



TheOC89

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 09:26 AMThe Monarchs will lose to SJB in the regular season, marking their third loss. That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage and the talent gap is not significant enough for SJB to overcome said advantage- and MD will beat DLS in the Open title game.

Along the way, Grayson will be upset in the Georgia playoffs; IMG will get dismantled by SFA, who's already lost to SJB; Bishop Gorman won't have a claim over MD having lost at home to them. Mostly, rankers will fall prey to recency bias, and will talk up the notion that "nobody is playing as well as MD this time of year". Additionally, the ascendant line of reasoning among rankers (dreadfully illogical as it is) is that you don't rank teams based on what happened in real games, but rather you imagine what you think would/should happen in a hypothetical rematch and rank according to your imagination. Any other team not mentioned above will lose out in the ranking to MD on the grounds that folks imagine MD would win a hypothetical match up vs. them.

The piss-poor reasoning mentioned above has always been used in deriving betting lines for games both scheduled and hypothetical (and it's not necessarily a bad idea for betting lines). This explains why Alabama, under Nick Saban, was frequently said to have been favored over any other team...without regard for their record. Now, imagine this approach being used to rank the teams in, say, 2010. Make no mistake, the 2010 national champions *absolutely* would've been Alabama. Sure, the Tide lost three (3) games, including to the Auburn team which finished unbeaten and actually won the NC. But, under this new ranking ideology, Auburn would've never made it to the title game in the first place: rankers' imaginations very likely would conclude Auburn wouldn't have won a hypothetical rematch with Alabama, and so therefore they should be ranked lower.

This abomination being passed off as sound reasoning is also reflective of society having gone mad in general and across the board. The "information age", where the internet and AI chatbots can offer any/all facts desired, has also led people to forget (or never learn) the importance of sound reasoning. People can't make proper sense of facts as they are shared.

End rant.

The good news is, you don't have to worry about any of this because MD is not Beating SJB this year.... SJB is significantly better than MD this year and MD's Coach and QB are Terrible.... 🤣

DreadnaughtAlum

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Quote from: TheOC89 on Oct 18, 2025, 10:24 AMThe good news is, you don't have to worry about any of this because MD is not Beating SJB this year.... SJB is significantly better than MD this year and MD's Coach and QB are Terrible.... 🤣
I assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...

Norcalnut

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 11:41 AMI assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...

Or, now bear with me, no matter what MD does going forward they don't deserve to win the MNC because of 2 bad losses and shitty offense (compared to the last 10 years).

Steeler01

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 11:41 AMI assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...
They can't win it because they have 3 losses.

hardhit1

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Quote from: Steeler01 on Oct 18, 2025, 12:33 PMThey can't win it because they have 3 losses.

And we live in a world that I cant understand  !