Mater Dei will win the MNC with three losses,

Started by DreadnaughtAlum, Oct 18, 2025, 09:26 AM

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DreadnaughtAlum

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The Monarchs will lose to SJB in the regular season, marking their third loss. That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage and the talent gap is not significant enough for SJB to overcome said advantage- and MD will beat DLS in the Open title game.

Along the way, Grayson will be upset in the Georgia playoffs; IMG will get dismantled by SFA, who's already lost to SJB; Bishop Gorman won't have a claim over MD having lost at home to them. Mostly, rankers will fall prey to recency bias, and will talk up the notion that "nobody is playing as well as MD this time of year". Additionally, the ascendant line of reasoning among rankers (dreadfully illogical as it is) is that you don't rank teams based on what happened in real games, but rather you imagine what you think would/should happen in a hypothetical rematch and rank according to your imagination. Any other team not mentioned above will lose out in the ranking to MD on the grounds that folks imagine MD would win a hypothetical match up vs. them.

The piss-poor reasoning mentioned above has always been used in deriving betting lines for games both scheduled and hypothetical (and it's not necessarily a bad idea for betting lines). This explains why Alabama, under Nick Saban, was frequently said to have been favored over any other team...without regard for their record. Now, imagine this approach being used to rank the teams in, say, 2010. Make no mistake, the 2010 national champions *absolutely* would've been Alabama. Sure, the Tide lost three (3) games, including to the Auburn team which finished unbeaten and actually won the NC. But, under this new ranking ideology, Auburn would've never made it to the title game in the first place: rankers' imaginations very likely would conclude Auburn wouldn't have won a hypothetical rematch with Alabama, and so therefore they should be ranked lower.

This abomination being passed off as sound reasoning is also reflective of society having gone mad in general and across the board. The "information age", where the internet and AI chatbots can offer any/all facts desired, has also led people to forget (or never learn) the importance of sound reasoning. People can't make proper sense of facts as they are shared.

End rant.



TheOC89

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 09:26 AMThe Monarchs will lose to SJB in the regular season, marking their third loss. That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage and the talent gap is not significant enough for SJB to overcome said advantage- and MD will beat DLS in the Open title game.

Along the way, Grayson will be upset in the Georgia playoffs; IMG will get dismantled by SFA, who's already lost to SJB; Bishop Gorman won't have a claim over MD having lost at home to them. Mostly, rankers will fall prey to recency bias, and will talk up the notion that "nobody is playing as well as MD this time of year". Additionally, the ascendant line of reasoning among rankers (dreadfully illogical as it is) is that you don't rank teams based on what happened in real games, but rather you imagine what you think would/should happen in a hypothetical rematch and rank according to your imagination. Any other team not mentioned above will lose out in the ranking to MD on the grounds that folks imagine MD would win a hypothetical match up vs. them.

The piss-poor reasoning mentioned above has always been used in deriving betting lines for games both scheduled and hypothetical (and it's not necessarily a bad idea for betting lines). This explains why Alabama, under Nick Saban, was frequently said to have been favored over any other team...without regard for their record. Now, imagine this approach being used to rank the teams in, say, 2010. Make no mistake, the 2010 national champions *absolutely* would've been Alabama. Sure, the Tide lost three (3) games, including to the Auburn team which finished unbeaten and actually won the NC. But, under this new ranking ideology, Auburn would've never made it to the title game in the first place: rankers' imaginations very likely would conclude Auburn wouldn't have won a hypothetical rematch with Alabama, and so therefore they should be ranked lower.

This abomination being passed off as sound reasoning is also reflective of society having gone mad in general and across the board. The "information age", where the internet and AI chatbots can offer any/all facts desired, has also led people to forget (or never learn) the importance of sound reasoning. People can't make proper sense of facts as they are shared.

End rant.

The good news is, you don't have to worry about any of this because MD is not Beating SJB this year.... SJB is significantly better than MD this year and MD's Coach and QB are Terrible.... 🤣

DreadnaughtAlum

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Quote from: TheOC89 on Oct 18, 2025, 10:24 AMThe good news is, you don't have to worry about any of this because MD is not Beating SJB this year.... SJB is significantly better than MD this year and MD's Coach and QB are Terrible.... 🤣
I assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...

Norcalnut

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 11:41 AMI assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...

Or, now bear with me, no matter what MD does going forward they don't deserve to win the MNC because of 2 bad losses and shitty offense (compared to the last 10 years).

Steeler01

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 11:41 AMI assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...
They can't win it because they have 3 losses.

hardhit1

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Quote from: Steeler01 on Oct 18, 2025, 12:33 PMThey can't win it because they have 3 losses.

And we live in a world that I cant understand  !

DreadnaughtAlum

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Quote from: Steeler01 on Oct 18, 2025, 12:33 PMThey can't win it because they have 3 losses.
I'm not aware of a rule that states this. Common sense might dictate that. But, what does common sense have to do with high school football rankings? Any of the people who publish rankings lists have the right to put anyone they please at #1. If/when the last impression rankers have of MD is them beating SJB to win the SS championship, and DLS to win the Open Bowl, rankers won't be able to help themselves. And, it would be true to say the Monarchs have the best four wins- by far- of any school in the country. Wins on the road at STA and Bishop Gorman, paired with neutral site wins over SJB and DLS, will put the three-loss Monarchs at #1 in most polls. As I said, most of the opposition to this post comes from people who can't imagine MD winning the second SJB game. History tells us this is silly.

DreadnaughtAlum

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To be clear, I don't think any three-loss team should ever be voted national champion. But, I also think there are many seasons with no team truly worthy of being voted national champion. Almost no one agrees with me on this...

Omaha Vol

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 22, 2025, 05:22 PMTo be clear, I don't think any three-loss team should ever be voted national champion. But, I also think there are many seasons with no team truly worthy of being voted national champion. Almost no one agrees with me on this...
I don't think a national champion has to be undefeated, either. That's why my poll is called No Nonsense. The crucial outcome for that to happen would be for SFA to beat IMG for starters.

Steeler01

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 22, 2025, 05:19 PMI'm not aware of a rule that states this. Common sense might dictate that. But, what does common sense have to do with high school football rankings? Any of the people who publish rankings lists have the right to put anyone they please at #1. If/when the last impression rankers have of MD is them beating SJB to win the SS championship, and DLS to win the Open Bowl, rankers won't be able to help themselves. And, it would be true to say the Monarchs have the best four wins- by far- of any school in the country. Wins on the road at STA and Bishop Gorman, paired with neutral site wins over SJB and DLS, will put the three-loss Monarchs at #1 in most polls. As I said, most of the opposition to this post comes from people who can't imagine MD winning the second SJB game. History tells us this is silly.
Anyone can make a poll, doesn't mean it has to be taken seriously.

Mater Dei as far as I'm concerned isn't this years national champ.

AztecPadre

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Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 22, 2025, 05:19 PMI'm not aware of a rule that states this. Common sense might dictate that. But, what does common sense have to do with high school football rankings? Any of the people who publish rankings lists have the right to put anyone they please at #1. If/when the last impression rankers have of MD is them beating SJB to win the SS championship, and DLS to win the Open Bowl, rankers won't be able to help themselves. And, it would be true to say the Monarchs have the best four wins- by far- of any school in the country. Wins on the road at STA and Bishop Gorman, paired with neutral site wins over SJB and DLS, will put the three-loss Monarchs at #1 in most polls. As I said, most of the opposition to this post comes from people who can't imagine MD winning the second SJB game. History tells us this is silly.

You actually make a good arguement for MD winning the whole thing.

Norcalnut

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Quote from: AztecPadre on Oct 23, 2025, 02:18 PMYou actually make a good arguement for MD winning the whole thing.

I don't agree with that statement but I do hope for MD in the Open against DLS. I'd rather Have DLS defense against MD offense rather than SJB,

DreadnaughtAlum

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Quote from: AztecPadre on Oct 23, 2025, 02:18 PMYou actually make a good arguement for MD winning the whole thing.
I don't think a three-loss team, which also has three three-point wins, should be national champ. No matter what. But, people simply cant accept that there are years (many, IMO) where there is NO TEAM worthy of being voted national champ. The idea that we should vote whoever it is we IMAGINE is the best team is absolutely stupid in every regard. It, quite literally, suggests we shouldn't even bother playing any games. Just go with the "eye test", smuggle in immense personal bias, and vote your conscious. Welp, in my imagination Lakeland didn't lose to MNW and they beat DLS 100-0. Also, any future losses will be canceled in favor of what I imagine. So, with that being said, I'd like to personally congratulate Lakeland on its 47th consecutive national championship: In my imagination, they ALWAYS win.  ;D  :-X