[the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage]

That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage

Actually, that's not true, at least not in Georgia.  Loren Maxwell, the computer guru behind much of the ratings and rankings in Georgia, did a statistical analysis of rematch games in Georgia and found that not to hold true.  It's been a few years but as best as I remember, it wasn't even close.  It's hard to believe Georgia would be an outlier in this.  It's one of those "everybody knows this to be true" where the perception does not match reality.

Actually, that's not true, at least not in Georgia.  Loren Maxwell, the computer guru behind much of the ratings and rankings in Georgia, did a statistical analysis of rematch games in Georgia and found that not to hold true.  It's been a few years but as best as I remember, it wasn't even close.  It's hard to believe Georgia would be an outlier in this.  It's one of those "everybody knows this to be true" where the perception does not match reality.

The reason for the confusion is because of how one keeps stats. In high school football, there is often enough of a talent disparity between teams playing a rematch that the same team wins both games. So, strictly looking at wins/losses in the aggregate, my claims may not show true. But, if we looked at point differential, we will see a definite edge to the losing team in the second game. Team A may win game one 50-0, and win game two 28-7. Some may consider these results to be the same, but in reality the losing team did 29 points better in the second game.

So, perhaps I should ammend the claim to state "when teams are considered fairly evenly matched, the loser of the first game has an advantage in the second game."

I don't think a three-loss team, which also has three three-point wins, should be national champ. No matter what. But, people simply cant accept that there are years (many, IMO) where there is NO TEAM worthy of being voted national champ. The idea that we should vote whoever it is we IMAGINE is the best team is absolutely stupid in every regard. It, quite literally, suggests we shouldn't even bother playing any games. Just go with the "eye test", smuggle in immense personal bias, and vote your conscious. Welp, in my imagination Lakeland didn't lose to MNW and they beat DLS 100-0. Also, any future losses will be canceled in favor of what I imagine. So, with that being said, I'd like to personally congratulate Lakeland on its 47th consecutive national championship: In my imagination, they ALWAYS win.   

HAHAHA!!

The reason for the confusion is because of how one keeps stats. In high school football, there is often enough of a talent disparity between teams playing a rematch that the same team wins both games. So, strictly looking at wins/losses in the aggregate, my claims may not show true. But, if we looked at point differential, we will see a definite edge to the losing team in the second game. Team A may win game one 50-0, and win game two 28-7. Some may consider these results to be the same, but in reality the losing team did 29 points better in the second game.

So, perhaps I should ammend the claim to state "when teams are considered fairly evenly matched, the loser of the first game has an advantage in the second game."

But in the end, it doesn't matter if they do "better" if they don't win the points battle.  I just can't agree with the loser of the first having an advantage.  You seem to fail to recognize the winner of the first learns about the loser, who their best players are, coaching schemes, etc.  There is no doubt the loser sometimes wins the second, game.  Heck, we did it last year vs Collins Hill.  But when you know more about that game, we lost by one on a night our kicker's first game resulted in 3 missed PATs and a missed field goal.  All indications were that we were the better team but we still lost.  That whole "any given night thing" definitely was in play.  Gosh, I wish I could remember the numbers but it was something like 75% of the time, the winner of the first was the winner of the second.  I'll see if I can contact him again and see if he can run the query again.

Well, my prediction won't work now. Bosco will win the rematch and the mythical national title.

I don't agree with that statement but I do hope for MD in the Open against DLS. I'd rather Have DLS defense against MD offense rather than SJB,

There still is the SS CIF playoffs to get through. Could possibly be anyone emerging from that bracket 🤷�♂️?

Well, my prediction won't work now. Bosco will win the rematch and the mythical national title.

In that Scenario, Computer polls will favor SJB, Human polls will favor and Undefeated IMG or GA team.... Fake Polls Will award SFA if they Beat IMG.... 🤣

Kicking myself for not wording the Subject "Mater Dei will win the MNC with multiple losses." Nobody would've believed me even with that heading, either, at the time I posted this thread.
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Kicking myself for not wording the Subject "Mater Dei will win the MNC with multiple losses." Nobody would've believed me even with that heading, either, at the time I posted this thread.
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You are right!.... If MD wins out they will have 2 more top 10 wins (Cen10, SJB) and a Top 20 win (DLS) there is no way they won't be #1 in at least a poll or 2... And their Schedule and Wins would justify it...

However, if I was running a poll, I would hold their losses against them more then giving them credit for their wins, because it's a sign of how inconsistent they are and how sloppy they play.... I believe they turned the ball over 11 times in those 2 losses along with tons of penalties, and were held to just 6 points by a team that lost 3 games.... To me that's just not a "National Champion"....

Now if there was a National playoff, I would say MD is the 1 team no one would want to play.... They have possibly the best player in the country in their Great WR and if they don't play sloppy they would destroy every top team in the country....

If I am running a poll, I give it to an Undefeated TX or GA team.... It's all Mythical anyway, but a "National Champ" should not lose to team with multiple losses.... So that would knock out SJB as well, because even if they win out, they lost to a 2 loss MD team and Blew a huge lead against MD.... That was a Bad loss for SJB....

So I don't think by any means, a So Cal team is guaranteed to be #1 unless Sierra Canyon wins out... There will be a lot of variability in the polls especially with the IMG fiasco, the So Cal teams other then SC all have bad losses that should disqualify them from the MNC....

what if SJB  beats MD in a clean game without all the penalties and to's . Just beats them strait up . That one hiccup shouldn't hurt SJB , should it ?

I think everyone is hoping for big upsets in the NCS and SS Open. One school in Santa Rosa and one in Santa Ana would make for a great stortyline.

what if SJB  beats MD in a clean game without all the penalties and to's . Just beats them strait up . That one hiccup shouldn't hurt SJB , should it ?

I don't think it will hurt them.... I think if SJB wins out they will take the majority of the polls.... Although a SFA win over IMG would have completely sealed the deal for a 1 loss SJB team to take all but the Massey poll that lives TX.... So I think the fact that they won't play now opens the door for an undefeated TX and GA teams to take some of the other Polls....

I am just saying in my own opinion, if I was running a Poll, I wouldn't Crown a "Mythical" Champion a team that lost to a 2 loss team....

I was wondering what happened to this thread

Besides DLS it looks like another states team

I was wondering what happened to this thread

Besides DLS it looks like another states team

haha, yep very weird year with MD losing the close games!
I'm not sure anyone deserves to be crowned champion this season. But, if we have to have one, then the winner of Grayson-Buford is most deserving IMO.

I will say that if Edgewater knocks off Lakeland and STA to finish unbeaten (with the most dominant win over NFL Europe, moreso than iMG or STA) state champs, they'd deserve a look. No one thinks they'll do that, and I'm not saying they will. But, if they add those two wins to what they already have, they'd qualify as severely underrated.