The Monarchs will lose to SJB in the regular season, marking their third loss. That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage and the talent gap is not significant enough for SJB to overcome said advantage- and MD will beat DLS in the Open title game.
Along the way, Grayson will be upset in the Georgia playoffs; IMG will get dismantled by SFA, who's already lost to SJB; Bishop Gorman won't have a claim over MD having lost at home to them. Mostly, rankers will fall prey to recency bias, and will talk up the notion that "nobody is playing as well as MD this time of year". Additionally, the ascendant line of reasoning among rankers (dreadfully illogical as it is) is that you don't rank teams based on what happened in real games, but rather you imagine what you think would/should happen in a hypothetical rematch and rank according to your imagination. Any other team not mentioned above will lose out in the ranking to MD on the grounds that folks imagine MD would win a hypothetical match up vs. them.
The piss-poor reasoning mentioned above has always been used in deriving betting lines for games both scheduled and hypothetical (and it's not necessarily a bad idea for betting lines). This explains why Alabama, under Nick Saban, was frequently said to have been favored over any other team...without regard for their record. Now, imagine this approach being used to rank the teams in, say, 2010. Make no mistake, the 2010 national champions *absolutely* would've been Alabama. Sure, the Tide lost three (3) games, including to the Auburn team which finished unbeaten and actually won the NC. But, under this new ranking ideology, Auburn would've never made it to the title game in the first place: rankers' imaginations very likely would conclude Auburn wouldn't have won a hypothetical rematch with Alabama, and so therefore they should be ranked lower.
This abomination being passed off as sound reasoning is also reflective of society having gone mad in general and across the board. The "information age", where the internet and AI chatbots can offer any/all facts desired, has also led people to forget (or never learn) the importance of sound reasoning. People can't make proper sense of facts as they are shared.
End rant.
Ok!
Sorcery!!!!!!!!!
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 09:26 AMThe Monarchs will lose to SJB in the regular season, marking their third loss. That loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage and the talent gap is not significant enough for SJB to overcome said advantage- and MD will beat DLS in the Open title game.
Along the way, Grayson will be upset in the Georgia playoffs; IMG will get dismantled by SFA, who's already lost to SJB; Bishop Gorman won't have a claim over MD having lost at home to them. Mostly, rankers will fall prey to recency bias, and will talk up the notion that "nobody is playing as well as MD this time of year". Additionally, the ascendant line of reasoning among rankers (dreadfully illogical as it is) is that you don't rank teams based on what happened in real games, but rather you imagine what you think would/should happen in a hypothetical rematch and rank according to your imagination. Any other team not mentioned above will lose out in the ranking to MD on the grounds that folks imagine MD would win a hypothetical match up vs. them.
The piss-poor reasoning mentioned above has always been used in deriving betting lines for games both scheduled and hypothetical (and it's not necessarily a bad idea for betting lines). This explains why Alabama, under Nick Saban, was frequently said to have been favored over any other team...without regard for their record. Now, imagine this approach being used to rank the teams in, say, 2010. Make no mistake, the 2010 national champions *absolutely* would've been Alabama. Sure, the Tide lost three (3) games, including to the Auburn team which finished unbeaten and actually won the NC. But, under this new ranking ideology, Auburn would've never made it to the title game in the first place: rankers' imaginations very likely would conclude Auburn wouldn't have won a hypothetical rematch with Alabama, and so therefore they should be ranked lower.
This abomination being passed off as sound reasoning is also reflective of society having gone mad in general and across the board. The "information age", where the internet and AI chatbots can offer any/all facts desired, has also led people to forget (or never learn) the importance of sound reasoning. People can't make proper sense of facts as they are shared.
End rant.
The good news is, you don't have to worry about any of this because MD is not Beating SJB this year.... SJB is significantly better than MD this year and MD's Coach and QB are Terrible.... 🤣
Quote from: TheOC89 on Oct 18, 2025, 10:24 AMThe good news is, you don't have to worry about any of this because MD is not Beating SJB this year.... SJB is significantly better than MD this year and MD's Coach and QB are Terrible.... 🤣
I assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 11:41 AMI assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...
Or, now bear with me, no matter what MD does going forward they don't deserve to win the MNC because of 2 bad losses and shitty offense (compared to the last 10 years).
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 11:41 AMI assume everyone disagrees with my post, but I also think the disagreement will be primarily along these lines. People don't think MD will be MNC...because they cant currently imagine MD beating SJB, particularly after SJB beats them in a couple weeks. Not because they'd oppose a three-loss MNC winner...
They can't win it because they have 3 losses.
Quote from: Steeler01 on Oct 18, 2025, 12:33 PMThey can't win it because they have 3 losses.
And we live in a world that I cant understand !
Quote from: Steeler01 on Oct 18, 2025, 12:33 PMThey can't win it because they have 3 losses.
I'm not aware of a rule that states this. Common sense might dictate that. But, what does common sense have to do with high school football rankings? Any of the people who publish rankings lists have the right to put anyone they please at #1. If/when the last impression rankers have of MD is them beating SJB to win the SS championship, and DLS to win the Open Bowl, rankers won't be able to help themselves. And, it would be true to say the Monarchs have the best four wins- by far- of any school in the country. Wins on the road at STA and Bishop Gorman, paired with neutral site wins over SJB and DLS, will put the three-loss Monarchs at #1 in most polls. As I said, most of the opposition to this post comes from people who can't imagine MD winning the second SJB game. History tells us this is silly.
To be clear, I don't think any three-loss team should ever be voted national champion. But, I also think there are many seasons with no team truly worthy of being voted national champion. Almost no one agrees with me on this...
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 22, 2025, 05:22 PMTo be clear, I don't think any three-loss team should ever be voted national champion. But, I also think there are many seasons with no team truly worthy of being voted national champion. Almost no one agrees with me on this...
I don't think a national champion has to be undefeated, either. That's why my poll is called No Nonsense. The crucial outcome for that to happen would be for SFA to beat IMG for starters.
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 22, 2025, 05:19 PMI'm not aware of a rule that states this. Common sense might dictate that. But, what does common sense have to do with high school football rankings? Any of the people who publish rankings lists have the right to put anyone they please at #1. If/when the last impression rankers have of MD is them beating SJB to win the SS championship, and DLS to win the Open Bowl, rankers won't be able to help themselves. And, it would be true to say the Monarchs have the best four wins- by far- of any school in the country. Wins on the road at STA and Bishop Gorman, paired with neutral site wins over SJB and DLS, will put the three-loss Monarchs at #1 in most polls. As I said, most of the opposition to this post comes from people who can't imagine MD winning the second SJB game. History tells us this is silly.
Anyone can make a poll, doesn't mean it has to be taken seriously.
Mater Dei as far as I'm concerned isn't this years national champ.
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 22, 2025, 05:19 PMI'm not aware of a rule that states this. Common sense might dictate that. But, what does common sense have to do with high school football rankings? Any of the people who publish rankings lists have the right to put anyone they please at #1. If/when the last impression rankers have of MD is them beating SJB to win the SS championship, and DLS to win the Open Bowl, rankers won't be able to help themselves. And, it would be true to say the Monarchs have the best four wins- by far- of any school in the country. Wins on the road at STA and Bishop Gorman, paired with neutral site wins over SJB and DLS, will put the three-loss Monarchs at #1 in most polls. As I said, most of the opposition to this post comes from people who can't imagine MD winning the second SJB game. History tells us this is silly.
You actually make a good arguement for MD winning the whole thing.
Quote from: AztecPadre on Oct 23, 2025, 02:18 PMYou actually make a good arguement for MD winning the whole thing.
I don't agree with that statement but I do hope for MD in the Open against DLS. I'd rather Have DLS defense against MD offense rather than SJB,
Quote from: AztecPadre on Oct 23, 2025, 02:18 PMYou actually make a good arguement for MD winning the whole thing.
I don't think a three-loss team, which also has three three-point wins, should be national champ. No matter what. But, people simply cant accept that there are years (many, IMO) where there is NO TEAM worthy of being voted national champ. The idea that we should vote whoever it is we IMAGINE is the best team is absolutely stupid in every regard. It, quite literally, suggests we shouldn't even bother playing any games. Just go with the "eye test", smuggle in immense personal bias, and vote your conscious. Welp, in my imagination Lakeland didn't lose to MNW and they beat DLS 100-0. Also, any future losses will be canceled in favor of what I imagine. So, with that being said, I'd like to personally congratulate Lakeland on its 47th consecutive national championship: In my imagination, they ALWAYS win. ;D :-X
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 18, 2025, 09:26 AMThat loss will set them up to win the rematch with SJB in the SS final- the team who lost the first game always has a huge advantage
Actually, that's not true, at least not in Georgia. Loren Maxwell, the computer guru behind much of the ratings and rankings in Georgia, did a statistical analysis of rematch games in Georgia and found that not to hold true. It's been a few years but as best as I remember, it wasn't even close. It's hard to believe Georgia would be an outlier in this. It's one of those "everybody knows this to be true" where the perception does not match reality.
Quote from: Fred on Oct 26, 2025, 11:30 AMActually, that's not true, at least not in Georgia. Loren Maxwell, the computer guru behind much of the ratings and rankings in Georgia, did a statistical analysis of rematch games in Georgia and found that not to hold true. It's been a few years but as best as I remember, it wasn't even close. It's hard to believe Georgia would be an outlier in this. It's one of those "everybody knows this to be true" where the perception does not match reality.
The reason for the confusion is because of how one keeps stats. In high school football, there is often enough of a talent disparity between teams playing a rematch that the same team wins both games. So, strictly looking at wins/losses in the aggregate, my claims may not show true. But, if we looked at point differential, we will see a definite edge to the losing team in the second game. Team A may win game one 50-0, and win game two 28-7. Some may consider these results to be the same, but in reality the losing team did 29 points better in the second game.
So, perhaps I should ammend the claim to state "when teams are considered fairly evenly matched, the loser of the first game has an advantage in the second game."
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 25, 2025, 04:46 PMI don't think a three-loss team, which also has three three-point wins, should be national champ. No matter what. But, people simply cant accept that there are years (many, IMO) where there is NO TEAM worthy of being voted national champ. The idea that we should vote whoever it is we IMAGINE is the best team is absolutely stupid in every regard. It, quite literally, suggests we shouldn't even bother playing any games. Just go with the "eye test", smuggle in immense personal bias, and vote your conscious. Welp, in my imagination Lakeland didn't lose to MNW and they beat DLS 100-0. Also, any future losses will be canceled in favor of what I imagine. So, with that being said, I'd like to personally congratulate Lakeland on its 47th consecutive national championship: In my imagination, they ALWAYS win. ;D :-X
HAHAHA!!
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Oct 28, 2025, 07:21 PMThe reason for the confusion is because of how one keeps stats. In high school football, there is often enough of a talent disparity between teams playing a rematch that the same team wins both games. So, strictly looking at wins/losses in the aggregate, my claims may not show true. But, if we looked at point differential, we will see a definite edge to the losing team in the second game. Team A may win game one 50-0, and win game two 28-7. Some may consider these results to be the same, but in reality the losing team did 29 points better in the second game.
So, perhaps I should ammend the claim to state "when teams are considered fairly evenly matched, the loser of the first game has an advantage in the second game."
But in the end, it doesn't matter if they do "better" if they don't win the points battle. I just can't agree with the loser of the first having an advantage. You seem to fail to recognize the winner of the first learns about the loser, who their best players are, coaching schemes, etc. There is no doubt the loser sometimes wins the second, game. Heck, we did it last year vs Collins Hill. But when you know more about that game, we lost by one on a night our kicker's first game resulted in 3 missed PATs and a missed field goal. All indications were that we were the better team but we still lost. That whole "any given night thing" definitely was in play. Gosh, I wish I could remember the numbers but it was something like 75% of the time, the winner of the first was the winner of the second. I'll see if I can contact him again and see if he can run the query again.
Well, my prediction won't work now. Bosco will win the rematch and the mythical national title.
Quote from: Norcalnut on Oct 23, 2025, 06:38 PMI don't agree with that statement but I do hope for MD in the Open against DLS. I'd rather Have DLS defense against MD offense rather than SJB,
There still is the SS CIF playoffs to get through. Could possibly be anyone emerging from that bracket 🤷�♂️?
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Nov 01, 2025, 12:23 PMWell, my prediction won't work now. Bosco will win the rematch and the mythical national title.
In that Scenario, Computer polls will favor SJB, Human polls will favor and Undefeated IMG or GA team.... Fake Polls Will award SFA if they Beat IMG.... 🤣
Kicking myself for not wording the Subject "Mater Dei will win the MNC with multiple losses." Nobody would've believed me even with that heading, either, at the time I posted this thread.
,
Quote from: DreadnaughtAlum on Nov 07, 2025, 04:40 PMKicking myself for not wording the Subject "Mater Dei will win the MNC with multiple losses." Nobody would've believed me even with that heading, either, at the time I posted this thread.
,
You are right!.... If MD wins out they will have 2 more top 10 wins (Cen10, SJB) and a Top 20 win (DLS) there is no way they won't be #1 in at least a poll or 2... And their Schedule and Wins would justify it...
However, if I was running a poll, I would hold their losses against them more then giving them credit for their wins, because it's a sign of how inconsistent they are and how sloppy they play.... I believe they turned the ball over 11 times in those 2 losses along with tons of penalties, and were held to just 6 points by a team that lost 3 games.... To me that's just not a "National Champion"....
Now if there was a National playoff, I would say MD is the 1 team no one would want to play.... They have possibly the best player in the country in their Great WR and if they don't play sloppy they would destroy every top team in the country....
If I am running a poll, I give it to an Undefeated TX or GA team.... It's all Mythical anyway, but a "National Champ" should not lose to team with multiple losses.... So that would knock out SJB as well, because even if they win out, they lost to a 2 loss MD team and Blew a huge lead against MD.... That was a Bad loss for SJB....
So I don't think by any means, a So Cal team is guaranteed to be #1 unless Sierra Canyon wins out... There will be a lot of variability in the polls especially with the IMG fiasco, the So Cal teams other then SC all have bad losses that should disqualify them from the MNC....
what if SJB beats MD in a clean game without all the penalties and to's . Just beats them strait up . That one hiccup shouldn't hurt SJB , should it ?
I think everyone is hoping for big upsets in the NCS and SS Open. One school in Santa Rosa and one in Santa Ana would make for a great stortyline.
Quote from: CALINORTH on Nov 08, 2025, 11:15 AMwhat if SJB beats MD in a clean game without all the penalties and to's . Just beats them strait up . That one hiccup shouldn't hurt SJB , should it ?
I don't think it will hurt them.... I think if SJB wins out they will take the majority of the polls.... Although a SFA win over IMG would have completely sealed the deal for a 1 loss SJB team to take all but the Massey poll that lives TX.... So I think the fact that they won't play now opens the door for an undefeated TX and GA teams to take some of the other Polls....
I am just saying in my own opinion, if I was running a Poll, I wouldn't Crown a "Mythical" Champion a team that lost to a 2 loss team....
I was wondering what happened to this thread
Besides DLS it looks like another states team
Quote from: hardhit1 on Nov 26, 2025, 03:15 PMI was wondering what happened to this thread
Besides DLS it looks like another states team
haha, yep very weird year with MD losing the close games!
I'm not sure anyone deserves to be crowned champion this season. But, if we have to have one, then the winner of Grayson-Buford is most deserving IMO.
I will say that if Edgewater knocks off Lakeland and STA to finish unbeaten (with the most dominant win over NFL Europe, moreso than iMG or STA) state champs, they'd deserve a look. No one thinks they'll do that, and I'm not saying they will. But, if they add those two wins to what they already have, they'd qualify as severely underrated.